In a recent LinkedIn post, Linas Beliūnas discusses what he presents as a stark picture of Europe potentially losing the artificial intelligence race to the United States. Beliūnas draws attention to key metrics, particularly in payment volumes, that suggest a significant divergence in AI adoption and development between the two regions.
He highlights data indicating a rapid increase in AI payment volume in the US, contrasting it with a much slower growth rate in the EU. According to Beliūnas, this financial disparity might be a symptom of deeper underlying issues within the European tech ecosystem.
“This might be the clearest picture yet of Europe losing the AI race.
US AI payment volume is going vertical. The EU line is barely moving.
And the payments chart may be the least worrying part.”
Infrastructure Bottlenecks Hampering EU AI Growth
Beliūnas points to several critical infrastructure and regulatory challenges that he believes are impeding Europe’s AI capabilities. A significant concern is the compute capacity, with EU estimates for 2026 suggesting it will only account for about 5% of the global total.
Furthermore, he notes the protracted timelines for new data centers to secure grid connections in parts of Europe, with some waiting up to seven years. This, coupled with electricity prices for large users being approximately double those in the U.S., creates a less favorable environment for AI development and deployment.
Founder Sentiment and Business Climate
Beyond infrastructure, Linas Beliūnas also examines the sentiment among founders regarding operating in Europe versus the U.S. His analysis indicates a concerning trend, with only 25-47% of founders in major EU countries stating they would incorporate there again, a stark contrast to the 85% in the U.S.
The ease of doing business with government entities is also a point of concern raised by Beliūnas. He reports that founders rate dealing with government at an average of 5.4 out of 10 across Europe, significantly lower than the 7.6 out of 10 reported in the U.S.
“Most importantly, AI leadership runs on megawatts, chips, capital, permits, and speed.
And those advantages compound: more compute creates better products, better products generate more revenue, and that revenue funds more compute.”
The Compounding Advantage of AI Leadership
Linas Beliūnas emphasizes the self-reinforcing nature of AI leadership. He argues that advantages in compute power, capital, and speed create a virtuous cycle. As he puts it:
“Most importantly, AI leadership runs on megawatts, chips, capital, permits, and speed. And those advantages compound: more compute creates better products, better products generate more revenue, and that revenue funds more compute.”
This compounding effect, according to Beliūnas, means that early leaders in AI can rapidly extend their lead, making it increasingly difficult for lagging regions to catch up.
Pathways for Europe to Close the Gap
While painting a challenging picture, Beliūnas suggests that Europe can still make strides in closing the AI gap. However, he stresses that this requires addressing the fundamental issues of data center grid connections and improving the overall environment for founders.
“Europe can still close part of the gap. But not while data centers take years to connect and founders increasingly choose to build elsewhere.”
The insights shared by Linas Beliūnas on LinkedIn underscore the complex interplay of infrastructure, regulatory efficiency, and founder experience in determining global AI leadership. His post serves as a call to attention for European policymakers and industry leaders regarding the critical factors needed to foster a competitive AI ecosystem.
📝 About This Content
This article is based on insights shared by Linas Beliūnas on LinkedIn.
📅 Originally posted on October 2, 2026 | View original post on LinkedIn →