In a recent LinkedIn post, Nick Curum delves into the common pitfalls of strategic decision-making, arguing that the issue often lies not with a lack of information, but with how that information is interpreted.
Curum challenges the notion that more data automatically leads to better outcomes, stating:
Most bad strategic decisions are not made because leaders lack information. They are made because leaders misinterpret it.
He elaborates that while executives may pore over board packs, market reports, and dashboards, the critical factor is not the volume of data but the quality of judgment applied. Curum highlights that two executives can analyze the identical dataset and arrive at starkly different conclusions, with one identifying risks early while the other dismisses them, or one challenging underlying assumptions while the other accepts the base case.
The Crucial Role of Thinking Models
According to Nick Curum, the divergence in decision-making quality stems from the “thinking model” an executive employs. He observes that consistently successful leaders “don’t just know more. They think differently.” These leaders, Curum explains, leverage straightforward mental models to interpret data before committing resources or setting strategic direction.
They use simple mental models to interpret what they are seeing before committing capital, setting direction, or making a call.
Curum emphasizes that these are not abstract academic concepts but practical tools that fundamentally alter the decision-making process. He provides several examples of such influential models:
- Richard Rumelt’s Strategy Kernel, which defines the essence of a true strategy.
- Charlie Munger’s Inversion, a technique for uncovering overlooked risks.
- Michael Mauboussin’s Base Rate, which grounds forecasts in reality.
- Andy Grove’s Strategic Inflection Point, used to recognize industry-wide shifts.
- Howard Marks’ Second-Order Thinking, which prompts deeper consideration of consequences.
A Practical Toolkit for Leaders
To make these powerful frameworks more accessible, Nick Curum has compiled a PDF featuring 12 key thinking models. He notes that each model in his collection includes a simple diagram, an executive takeaway, and actionable questions designed for immediate application.
If you work in strategy, leadership, investing, or analytics, you may find it useful.
Curum suggests that these models are particularly beneficial for professionals in strategy, leadership, investing, and analytics, offering them practical lenses through which to navigate complex business challenges and improve their strategic choices. The post concludes by inviting readers to consider which thinking model has most significantly impacted their own decision-making processes.
📝 About This Content
This article is based on insights shared by Nick Curum on LinkedIn.
📅 Originally posted on April 3, 2026 | View original post on LinkedIn →