How Our Brain’s Predictions Can Mislead Us, According to Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S.

S

Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S.

LinkedIn Author

I help nerds make money 💰🤓 | $250M ARR I WHERE NEUROSCIENCE MEETS REVENUE I 50+ GTM, Sales & User Adoption Resources I HarvardX Neuroscience Research I Keynote 🎤 I Ex-Microsoft I Captain ⛵

In a recent LinkedIn post, Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. delves into the deceptive nature of our own thoughts, particularly how the brain’s predictive processing can lead to misinterpretations that feel like objective reality. Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. highlights that what often feels like a direct perception of events is, in fact, a rapid construction based on incomplete data, past experiences, and emotions.

The core of Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S.’s argument is that our brains are not passive observers but active predictors. They don’t typically present interpretations as possibilities; instead, they assert them as facts. This can lead individuals into a cognitive trap where their internal narrative is mistaken for the truth of a situation.

“Your brain rarely says: ‘Here’s one possible interpretation.’ It says: ‘This is what’s happening.’”

Understanding the Brain’s Predictive Engine

Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. explains that this predictive function is incredibly fast and often operates below conscious awareness. The brain takes fragments of information, overlays them with past experiences, emotional states, and contextual cues, and quickly constructs a coherent story. This process is efficient but prone to error, especially when dealing with ambiguous situations.

The author provides relatable examples of this phenomenon in a professional context. For instance, a simple message from a boss like “Can we talk?” can trigger an immediate interpretation of having done something wrong. Similarly, a stalled deal might be quickly interpreted as a lack of interest, or a single difficult meeting as a sign of personal failure. According to Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S., these are not facts but rather predictions colored by underlying fears or assumptions.

The Role of Confirmation Bias

Once a prediction is made, Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. points out that confirmation bias kicks in, making individuals more likely to seek out and notice evidence that supports their initial interpretation. This reinforces the mistaken belief and makes it harder to consider alternative explanations. As Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. writes:

“And once your brain generates a prediction, confirmation bias makes it easier to notice evidence that supports it.”

Strategies for Interrupting Misinterpretations

To combat this cognitive tendency, Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. proposes several practical strategies. The first involves a deliberate separation of observation from interpretation. This means consciously writing down exactly what happened, followed by a separate notation of what one believes it means. Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. uses the example: “Sarah hasn’t responded for two days” is an observation, while “Sarah is avoiding me” is an interpretation. This simple act of documentation creates a crucial space for critical examination.

Another key strategy recommended by Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. is to actively generate competing explanations. Before settling on the first conclusion that arises, individuals are encouraged to brainstorm at least three alternative possibilities. This practice, according to the author, enhances cognitive flexibility by presenting the brain with multiple models to evaluate.

“Before accepting your first conclusion, force yourself to create alternatives. Maybe they’re angry. Maybe they’re overwhelmed. Maybe this has absolutely nothing to do with you.”

Furthermore, Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. suggests asking what evidence would be sufficient to change one’s mind. If the answer is “nothing,” it indicates a defense of a belief rather than an objective examination of reality.

Challenging the Fastest Story

Ultimately, Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. emphasizes that while the brain is a powerful prediction machine, its outputs—thoughts, predictions, and feelings—are not infallible facts. The narrative that emerges most quickly is not necessarily the most accurate one. The most critical neuroscience skill, in Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S.’s view, is cultivating the habit of asking, “What else could be true?”

“The brain is an incredible prediction machine. But predictions are not facts. Thoughts are not facts. Feelings are not facts. And the story that arrives fastest isn’t automatically the one that’s true.”

By implementing these techniques, professionals can better navigate workplace dynamics, reduce unnecessary anxiety, and make more objective decisions, recognizing the distinction between their brain’s predictions and objective reality.

📝 About This Content

This article is based on insights shared by Shannon Smith, J.D., M.S. on LinkedIn.

📅 Originally posted on September 3, 2026 | View original post on LinkedIn →