In a recent LinkedIn post, Rand Fishkin discusses surprising findings from the latest State of Search report (Q4 2025), conducted in collaboration with Datos, a Semrush Company. Fishkin points to a particular graph that he anticipates will spark significant conversation and perhaps apprehension within the industry.
The core of the discussion revolves around the user growth trajectory of ChatGPT. Contrary to expectations that its expansion would merely decelerate, the report indicates an actual decline in user numbers compared to previous quarters. Fishkin expresses his astonishment at this development, noting:
This. This is the graph I think is going to generate the most interest, discussion, and even fear among folks who see our latest State of Search (Q4 2025) report with Datos, A Semrush Company.
This observation challenges the prevailing narrative of continuous, unfettered growth for major AI platforms. As Rand Fishkin elaborates on the implications, the data suggests a potential shift in user engagement or market saturation that warrants closer examination.
Analyzing the ChatGPT User Trend
Fishkin’s post emphasizes the unexpected nature of this downturn. He highlights that the expectation was for a slowdown, not a contraction in user base. This distinction is critical for understanding the current dynamics of AI tool adoption and user retention.
The Significance of the Downturn
According to Rand Fishkin, the implications of fewer users than in previous quarters are substantial. This could signal a maturing market, increased competition, or perhaps a need for AI developers to innovate more rapidly to maintain user interest. Fishkin states:
ChatGPT’s growth was expected to slow, but an actual downturn? Fewer users than in Q2/Q3? That’s wild.
In Fishkin’s view, this data point is not just a minor fluctuation but a significant indicator that demands attention from anyone involved in the search and AI landscape. The report, and this specific graph in particular, aims to provide a data-driven perspective on these evolving trends.
Upcoming Webinar to Detail Findings
To delve deeper into these and other findings, Rand Fishkin announced an upcoming webinar. He will be joined by Eli Goodman to present the comprehensive results of the State of Search report.
The webinar is scheduled for February 11th, at 11 am Pacific Time / 2 pm Eastern Time. Fishkin anticipates that this session will provide a thorough walkthrough of the report’s dozens of graphs, charts, and key takeaways, offering valuable insights for industry professionals.
As Rand Fishkin points out, the event is designed to unpack the complexities revealed in the data:
In 8 days, I’m joining Eli Goodman for a webinar going through this and dozens of other graphs, charts, and findings from the report – February 11 @ 11am Pacific / 2pm Eastern
This coverage, based on Rand Fishkin’s LinkedIn post, aims to highlight the critical insights he has shared regarding the current state of AI tools and their user engagement, emphasizing the need for ongoing analysis in this rapidly changing field.
📝 About This Content
This article is based on insights shared by Rand Fishkin on LinkedIn.
📅 Originally posted on February 3, 2026 | View original post on LinkedIn →