Seth Godin 🌔 Predicts the End of Open Networks Due to Digital Marauding

In a recent LinkedIn post, Seth Godin 🌔 discusses the potential end of fully open communication networks, arguing that the current model is unsustainable due to the rise of digital spam and the abuse of asymmetric communication channels. Godin 🌔 draws parallels between historical communication systems and the modern internet, highlighting how unchecked abuse has historically led to network degradation.

The Erosion of Open Networks

Seth Godin 🌔 begins by tracing the history of open communication, starting with the telephone system and email. He emphasizes the profound impact of permission-less contact on the flow of information, commerce, and culture. However, he quickly pivots to the challenges that emerged, particularly spam. Godin 🌔 notes the historical friction points that helped manage communication, such as the cost of stamps or phone calls, which acted as natural deterrents to mass unsolicited messaging.

“It’s hard to overstate how profound the idea of permission-less contact was to the flow of information and the growth of commerce and culture.”

According to Godin 🌔, the advent of spam, where senders could exploit the asymmetry of costs (low cost for sender, high cost for recipient), began to degrade these open systems. He points to Usenet as an early example of an internet discussion layer that died due to this very issue, as no one had an incentive to clean up the massive influx of unsolicited content.

AI and the Amplification of Spam

The core of Godin 🌔’s argument revolves around how modern technologies like AI, cloud computing, and Voice over IP (VOIP) have drastically amplified the problem. He argues that the scale of digital abuse now far exceeds what previous generations of spam represented.

“Multiply spam by AI and the cloud and VOIP, though, and it’s obvious that open networks can’t survive.”

Godin 🌔 illustrates this point with contemporary examples, such as receiving dozens of junk SMS messages in a single day or numerous voicemails about business loans. He posits that the signal-to-noise ratio has become so skewed that it effectively turns useful communication channels into mere noise, leading users to disengage, such as by turning off notifications.

The Need for New Communication Paradigms

To address this impending crisis, Seth Godin 🌔 suggests that new mechanisms are necessary. He proposes that future communication systems will likely need to incorporate a cost for the sender, preventing the scaling of abuse, and an identity layer that establishes reputation.

“We’re going to need to create a cost for the sender (so it can’t scale to ridiculous) as well as an identity layer (so scammers can’t be fully anonymous–reputation is earned, not invented).”

Godin 🌔 draws a historical parallel to ancient villages building walls for protection against marauders. He believes the current scale of digital abuse is so significant that it will force a fundamental shift in how people communicate and whom they trust. While the exact form of this transition remains uncertain, Godin 🌔 concludes that the long-held assumptions about open communication with strangers are about to be fundamentally challenged.