The Conversion Era: Nick Curum Explains Why Old Energy Models Won’t Work Anymore

In a recent LinkedIn post, Nick Curum discusses the fundamental shift occurring in the energy sector, moving from a combustion-based model to one driven by electrical conversion. Curum uses the analogy of a drone light show replacing fireworks to illustrate how technological evolution prioritizes control and precision over older methods, even if those methods were once dominant.

Curum highlights the historical reliance on combustion for spectacle and power, characterized by heat and waste. He contrasts this with the emerging paradigm of electric precision. “Old model: Chemical combustion light + heat + waste,” Curum writes, outlining the traditional approach. He then presents the new model: “New model: Electric power light + control + repeatability.” This fundamental change, he argues, is not merely about being “greener” but about superior capability and control.

From Extraction to Conversion

The post details how the energy system itself is undergoing this transformation. For two centuries, the process involved extracting fuel, burning it, capturing heat, and generating power. Curum states, “For two centuries: Extract fuel Burn it Capture heat Generate power.” This linear, combustion-dependent process is being replaced by a system focused on direct energy conversion.

According to Curum, the new energy system relies on technologies that convert natural phenomena directly into usable power. “Solar converts photons. Wind converts motion. Batteries store and dispatch electrons,” he explains, emphasizing the absence of combustion and fuel burning. This shift introduces different constraints, economics, and operational requirements.

“The capabilities that made you dominant in the combustion era won’t win in the conversion era.”

Shifting Competitive Landscapes

Curum argues that the skills and assets valued in the combustion era are fundamentally different from those required for the conversion era. He breaks down these differences, noting that combustion rewarded industries for aspects like “Reserves, Scale extraction, Fuel logistics, [and] Thermal engineering.”

In contrast, the conversion era, as Curum points out, prioritizes different competencies. These include “Grid orchestration, Power electronics, Software control, [and] Capital speed.” This necessitates developing entirely new capabilities. “Different muscle. Different balance sheet logic. Different competitive moat,” he asserts, underscoring the profound strategic implications of this transition.

The Drone Show Analogy

To further illustrate his point, Curum references the shift from fireworks to drone light shows. He clarifies the driving force behind this change: “Drones didn’t replace fireworks because they were greener. They replaced them because they were more controllable.” This analogy serves to frame the energy transition not as an environmental choice, but as an evolution driven by superior control and precision, a pattern he believes energy is now following.

“The transition isn’t a question of belief. It’s a question of capability.”

Capability Over Belief

Ultimately, Curum concludes that the energy transition is not a matter of ideological commitment but of practical capability. The core question for businesses and leaders, as highlighted by Curum, is whether their organizational structure and capabilities are aligned with the demands of the new era. “Are you structurally built for combustion… or conversion?” he poses, challenging leaders to assess their readiness for the evolving energy landscape.