In a world where students have returned to schools and employers have cajoled their workforce back into offices, the shadow of COVID-19 still looms large. Fresh reports indicate a rise in global cases. New variants, notably BA.2.86 (Pirola) and EG.5 (Eris), are already making their mark in countries like the US and UK. Yet, even with the onset of colder weather, there’s currently no official talk of new lockdowns. But the pertinent question is, should the situation worsen, are businesses and workers equipped to manage?
History’s Lessons: The Initial pandemic outbreak
The abrupt emergence of the pandemic in 2020 found many companies and employees ill-prepared. Founders and executives, in particular, had to make swift, crucial decisions impacting not just revenues but also the welfare of their workforce. Businesses were forced to adapt overnight, with numerous transitioning to remote work models, while others closed their physical premises indefinitely.
Today, as we stand at the precipice of possible further waves, concerns are rife. Companies are grappling with the uncertainty of how their workforce and consumers will react. Will employees be reluctant to return to offices? Will patrons desert physical retail stores, restaurants and hotels?
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Rachael Piltch-Loeb, a research scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, highlights the silver lining: with over three years of pandemic management behind us, we’re better equipped to lessen COVID-19’s impact. But, she stresses, the repercussions will not be uniform across sectors.
Gleaning wisdom from the past
The silver lining amid the uncertainties is the experience. Companies and employees, after confronting numerous COVID waves and changing guidelines, have a template in place. The unparalleled shock of the 2020 disruptions is unlikely to repeat, thanks to the strategic changes implemented since then.
Piltch-Loeb explains that businesses have “adapted to working in different disease environments.” The dynamics of work have shifted for a significant chunk of the workforce. Companies have established remote-work protocols and, in certain situations, revamped their leave policies.
Essentially, businesses today are more agile. The infrastructure to support remote work is firmly established, eliminating the scramble witnessed during the initial outbreak. Francesca L. Beaudoin, a professor at Brown University in the US, emphasises the importance of companies maintaining a well-documented “playbook” to prevent having to start from scratch should a new challenge arise.
Further, Elissa Perry, a professor at Columbia University’s Teachers College, believes that the potential rise in cases will not mirror the disruption levels of 2020 and 2021. Business leaders, she points out, have become more receptive to their workforce’s physical and psychological needs, striving to strike a balance between health risks and emotional well-being.
However, not all sectors might boast such preparedness. While many businesses can switch modes promptly, frontline workers might not find the transition so seamless. If lockdowns were reinstated, these workers would likely face burnout, as many are yet to recover from the initial lockdown’s effects.
Moreover, sectors like hospitality, healthcare and transport have seen their workforce numbers diminish, and the challenge of recruitment persists. A potential lockdown would be daunting for these sectors, relying heavily on an already exhausted workforce.
Facing the future: adapt or perish
The recent spike in cases underscores a potentially pivotal juncture for businesses: adapt or risk obsolescence. Workers have experienced both competent and poor crisis management. They’re now looking to leadership for guidance. Mitchell Lee Marks, an organisational psychologist, emphasises the importance of clear communication from leadership. Companies failing to guide might risk losing their employees to firms that offer better support during turbulent times.
Piltch-Loeb also stresses the critical role companies play in addressing the mental health impacts of a potential new wave. While some workers can access psychological support or rest days, many don’t have these benefits. As challenges mount, companies must extend their support networks.
Ultimately, experts largely believe that businesses and workers will adapt swiftly to forthcoming challenges, COVID-19 or otherwise. The past few years have been a learning curve, with many businesses already putting resilient strategies into action.
However, the onus remains on individual business leaders to keep abreast of COVID-19 developments and respond proactively. As Beaudoin aptly puts it, “As viruses evolve and adapt, it is important that we do the same.”