Why Studying Advertising’s Past is Key to Predicting its Future, According to Justin Oberman

In a recent LinkedIn post, Justin Oberman explores the enduring relevance of advertising history, arguing that understanding past trends is crucial for predicting future success in the field. Oberman highlights a common sentiment among some industry veterans that old advertisements can be off-putting, yet he posits that this historical perspective is an invaluable resource for contemporary advertisers.

The Cyclical Nature of Advertising Battles

Oberman points out that the history of advertising is not merely a chronicle of evolving styles but a continuous interplay of fundamental strategic conflicts. He identifies recurring debates that have shaped the industry over decades.

“A simple peruse of the history of advertising reveals more than just changes in artistic and writing styles. It also reveals a constant back and forth ‘battle.’ Between ‘Hard-selling’ and ‘soft selling,’ ‘research and ‘creative,’ copy-first approaches vs. artistic first approaches and direct marketing vs. brand marketing.”

As Justin Oberman notes, the perceived dominance of one approach over another tends to shift approximately every 10 to 15 years. This cyclical pattern, he suggests, offers a roadmap for navigating current and future advertising challenges. For those willing to delve into this historical record, Oberman believes it provides a wealth of learning opportunities.

Historical Examples as a Guide for Modern Creation

The author emphasizes that the vast archive of past advertising campaigns serves as a readily accessible learning tool. For anyone tasked with creating new advertisements, regardless of the product or service, historical examples offer insights into what has resonated with consumers previously.

Leveraging History for Innovation

Oberman contends that the fear or disdain some professionals have for older advertising methods overlooks their potential as a source of inspiration. He frames historical advertising as a gateway to effective modern campaigns.

“Creating ads for a new kind of bicycle? You’re just one Google or Anthropic search away from over 150 years’ worth of examples. And 150 years of people, just like yourself, trying to figure out what it takes to get people to buy a similar product.”

According to Justin Oberman, approaching advertising history with a student’s mindset, rather than a dismissive one, unlocks its true value. He argues that this historical context is not about replicating the past but about understanding the underlying principles that drive consumer behavior.

Predicting the Future Through Historical Cycles

Justin Oberman’s core thesis is that the cyclical nature of advertising trends provides a powerful lens through which to anticipate future developments. By recognizing these recurring patterns, advertisers can better position themselves for success.

“Because if the history of advertising is cyclical, it means that advertising itself is cyclical. I don’t study the history of advertising to return to the past. I study it to predict the future.”

He concludes by reflecting on the dynamic nature of successful advertising, citing a former mentor, Jim Riswold, who famously stated, “There are no new ideas. Only better ones.” In Oberman’s view, this principle underscores the importance of building upon historical foundations rather than discarding them, suggesting that true innovation lies in refining and adapting timeless strategies for contemporary audiences.